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NBA Atlantic Division Off-Season GradesBasketball Betting Lines07/30/2010 - New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Atlantic Division had only one team finish with a winning record last season (Celtics), and although some members have improved since then, it looks like it will be pretty weak once again. Let's take a look at how each has fared in the attempt to upgrade their rosters. CELTICS: Boston kept its "Big Four" intact by re-signing free agents Paul Pierce and Ray Allen. The Celtics did lose a valuable bench player to free agency with Tony Allen signing with the Grizzlies. Another key sub may not return, as the C's await Rasheed Wallace's decision on whether he'll remain retired. Boston signed free agent Jermaine O'Neal to bolster its front line, which will help with Kendrick Perkins being sidelined to at least December as he recovers from major knee surgery. O'Neal is more of an offensive threat than Perkins, but the Celts will miss his physical presence. In the draft, the Boston picked up guard Avery Bradley and power forward Luke Harangody. Even though Harangody was a second round pick, he may be more ready to step in and contribute this season following a very impressive showing in the summer league. KNICKS: Team president Donnie Walsh stripped his roster down to almost nothing over the last two years to get under the salary cap, in hopes of striking free agent gold this summer. What he ended up with was some nice bronze and two straight horrible seasons. Free agent Amar'e Stoudemire was glad to come to New York for a guaranteed $100 million dollars. The only problem was none of his fellow big-ticket free agents wanted to do the same. Point guard Raymond Felton, also a free agent, did opt to join Stoudemire in the Big Apple, signing a three-year contract. Walsh did manage to get some useful pieces for free agent David Lee, as he sent him to the Warriors in a sign-and-trade for Anthony Randolph, Kelenna Azubuike, and Ronny Turiaf. The Knicks had two second-round draft picks, and came away with small forward Landry Fields and guard Andy Rautins. Fields showed some promise in the summer league, while Rautins may be even a worse pick than Jordan Hill was last season. The end result for the Knicks was they got rid of eventual All-Star Zach Randolph and sixth-man-of- the-year winner Jamal Crawford for Stoudemire and Felton. Not much of a trade- off for two horrible seasons, if you ask me. NETS: New Jersey had the third overall pick in the draft and selected power forward Derrick Favors. He has a wealth of potential and tremendous athleticism, but it's unlikely he'll have a big impact in his first season. The Nets selected Damion James with the second of their two first-round picks. James played very well in the summer league and may be more polished at this point than Favors. The Nets also picked up some serviceable pieces in the free agent market, signing point guard Jordan Farmar, small forward Travis Outlaw, and shooting guard Anthony Morrow. Farmar gives the Nets a solid backup for Devin Harris, while Outlaw and Morrow can both fill it up from the outside. Grade: B 76ERS: The big addition was Evan Turner, the second overall pick in the draft. He struggled in the summer league by his own admission, and you wonder how effective he'll be having to play off the ball in the NBA. The Sixers made one trade of note, sending the highly outsized contract of center Samuel Dalembert to the Kings for center Spencer Hawes and small forward Andres Nocioni. Aside from dumping a bad contract, Philly gets a big man in Hawes that is seven years younger than Dalembert. However, the overall effect of the trade as far as improving the team is likely to be minimal at best. Grade: C RAPTORS: Even though Toronto lost its All-Star power forward Chris Bosh to the Heat via free agency, it actually wasn't a disastrous off-season for the Raptors. Toronto got another lefty power forward in the draft's first round, North Carolina's Ed Davis. He's still very raw and will take time to develop, but the Raptors potentially got themselves a good replacement for Bosh with the 13th overall pick. The Raptors made two free agent signings of their own, inking small forward Linas Kleiza to a very reasonable four-year, $18.4 million dollar deal, and a somewhat unreasonable five-year, $34 million dollar contract to power forward Amir Johnson Kleiza played overseas last year, but was very productive previously backing up Carmelo Anthony in Denver. Johnson earned his hefty payday by averaging 6.2 ppg in nearly 18 minutes per game last season for the Raptors. He does do some good work off the boards and provide a shot- blocking presence, but has always had trouble staying on the floor due to foul problems. Toronto also traded the disgruntled and disappointing Hedo Turkoglu to the Suns for Leandro Barbosa. The Raptors had to be thrilled getting a quality player like Barbosa in exchange for a player who didn't want to be there and is four years older. Grade: C+
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Sportsbook Betting LinesWho Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error. “You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said. “The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10). How the Opening Line Is MadeThe opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades. Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias. The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line. Why Sports Betting Lines ChangeOnce the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action. Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite. Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.” To visit this internet sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your sports betting needs and World Series odds.
Football Betting LinesThe 2009 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds have been released and Denver Broncos' running back Knowshon Moreno has been made the opening favorite. Moreno was selected in the first round of April's NFL draft and is expected to carry the rushing load for the Broncos this season. And with Jay Cutler now in Chicago, Moreno might be expected to be Denver's entire offense. Betting Lines from sports betting lines have made Moreno a 5/2 favorite to win this year's Offensive Rookie of the Year Award. Fellow running back Chris “Beanie” Wells (Arizona Cardinals) is right behind Moreno at 7/2, while Donald Brown (Indianapolis Colts) and receiver Michael Crabtree (San Francisco 49ers) are 5/1 to win. Quarterbacks Mark Sanchez (New York Jets) and Matthew Stafford (Detroit Lions) are 7/1 and 8/1, respectively. A couple of players who present some value are Josh Freeman, Shonn Green and Darrius Heyward-Bey. Freeman needs to beat out Byron Leftwich to become the starting quarterback of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers but if he does, he has a lot or raw talent and could use the weapons around him (i.e. Kellen Winslow Jr. and Antonio Bryant) to be very successful in his first season. Green enters a crowded backfield in New York, but considering both Thomas Jones and Leon Washington are unhappy about their contract situations and might holdout, the former Iowa product could become the Jets' primary back. Everyone was shocked when Al Davis took Heyward-Bey with the eighth overall pick in April's draft, but the kid has a tremendous amount of talent and if quarterback JaMarcus Russell takes the next step this year, the former Maryland product could blossom. Plus, Heyward-Bey will be looking to prove the people wrong who said Oakland should have taken Michael Crabtree with the No. 8 pick. And if you're looking for a deep sleeper, check out Pat White at 30/1. He enters the Miami Dolphins vaunted “Wild Cat” offense and could be a big time playmaker. For complete odds on the 2009 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds, see below. 2009 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds to Win Ramses Barden (NYG) 40/1 Andre Brown (NYG) 20/1 Donald Brown (IND) 5/1 Kenny Britt (TEN) 20/1 Glenn Coffee (SFO) 30/1 Chase Coffman (CIN) 50/1 Michael Crabtree (SFO) 5/1 Josh Freeman (TB) 14/1 Shonn Green (NYJ) 14/1 Percy Harvin (MIN) 10/1 Darrius Heyward-Bay (OAK) 18/1 Juaquan Iglesias (CHI) 30/1 Cornelius Ingram (PHI) 50/1 Rashad Jennings (JAC) 30/1 Johnny Knox (CHI) 40/1 Jeremy Maclin (PHI) 18/1 Mohamed Massaquoi (CLE) 30/1 LeSean McCoy (PHI) 12/1 Knowshon Moreno (DEN) 5/2 Hakeem Nicks (NYG) 18/1 Brandon Pettigrew (DET) 30/1 Brian Robiskie (CLE) 20/1 Mark Sanchez (NYJ) 7/1 Matthew Stafford (DET) 8/1 Jason Smith (STL) 40/1 Mike Thomas (JAC) 25/1 Patrick Turner (MIA) 50/1 Mike Wallace (PIT) 50/1 Chris Wells (ARI) 7/2 Pat White (MIA) 30/1 Field (Any Other Player) 9/1 To visit this sports betting site go to BettingExpress.com for all your football betting lines needs. For sports betting with credit cards site go to BettingExpress.com as well. |
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